潘石屹 当前的中国楼市就是泰坦尼克

China's once buoyant property market is facing some rough sailing. In fact, according to one tycoon -- Soho China Ltd's chief Pan Shiyi -- the real estate market is looking more like the Titanic headed in the direction of an iceberg.

曾经炙手可热的中国房地产市场正遭遇坎坷。据房地产大亨、SOHO中国(Soho China Ltd.)董事长潘石屹说，当前的房地产市场看起来更像是朝着冰山驶去的泰坦尼克号。

Mr. Pan, the co-founder and chairman of Soho China Ltd., is taking a very bearish view on the housing market, which has struggled this year. In the first four months of the year, home sales were down 9.9% from the same period a year ago in value terms, official data shows. New construction starts -- as calculated by area -- were down almost 25% year over year in the same period.

潘石屹是SOHO中国联合创始人和董事长。他非常不看好中国楼市。今年中国楼市一直处于困境之中。官方数据显示，今年前四个月，房屋销售额较上年同比下降9.9%。房屋新开工面积较上年同比下降近25%。

As if that's not bad enough, demand is also weakening in an expanding number of cities as banks tighten mortgage lending and sales are dampened by widespread expectations of price cuts.

雪上加霜的是，随着银行收紧抵押贷款，加之房价下跌的普遍预期打击了房屋销售，越来越多的城市出于需求萎缩的状态中。

'I think China's property market is like the Titanic and it will soon hit an iceberg in front of it, ' Mr. Pan told a financial forum on Friday, according to the China Business News.

据《第一财经日报》报道，潘石屹上周五在一个金融论坛上说，他认为中国的房地产就是泰坦尼克号，马上就要撞到前面的冰山。

'After hitting the iceberg, the risks will not only be in the real estate sector. The bigger risk will be in the financial sector, ' he added.

他还说，撞到之后，不但是房地产行业的风险，更大的是金融行业的风险。

He said serious problems lie with financial products like trust and wealth management products, as well as entrusted loans that charge higher interest rates than banks and are key financing vehicles for the property sector.

他说，信托、第三方理财、委托存款等金融产品存在严重问题，这些产品利率都很高，是房地产行业的主要融资渠道。

'When housing prices fall 20% to 30%, these problems will be all exposed, 'he was quoted as saying.

报道援引潘石屹的话说，当房价下跌20%-30%，这些问题就全部暴露出来了。

Soho China declined to comment about Mr. Pan's remarks. But in a post on his verified Weibo account Monday, Mr. Pan said that during the forum's question and answer session, he had first asked whether there were any journalists present before replying to a question about the housing market. Only upon being told there were no reporters present, he said, did he proceed to answer.

SOHO中国拒绝就潘石屹的表态置评。但周一潘石屹在他的微博认证帐号中表示，在座谈的提问环节，第一个问题是房价，回答问题前他问在座的是否有记者。他说，当得到没有记者的答覆后，他才开始回答问题。

'I didn't expect there are countless reporters hiding [in the audience], 'he said.

他说，没想到有无数记者潜伏着。

Soho has been putting at least some of its money where Mr. Pan's mouth is -- that is, by taking it out of the local property market.

一直以来，SOHO中国至少是用自己的部分资金践行潘石屹上述观点的，也就是说，该公司将部分资金撤出国内房地产市场。

In February, Soho China, run by Mr. Pan and his wife Zhang Xin, announced plans to sell all of their interest in Soho Hailun Plaza and Soho Jing'an Plaza in Shanghai for about 5.23 billion yuan ($853 million) to Financial Street Holdings, a Shenzhen-listed property developer.

今年2月份，由潘石屹和他的妻子张欣运营的SOHO中国宣布，计划将他们在上海SOHO海伦广场和静安广场的所有权益以大约人民币52.3亿元（合8.53亿美元）出售给深圳上市的房地产开发商金融街控股股份有限公司(Financial Street Holding Co., 简称：金融街)。

The central bank has instructed commercial banks to make mortgage lending a priority. Likewise, some local governments have taken steps to ease their curbs on home purchases, which were put in place when prices seemed to be soaring out of reach for most of China's 1.3 billion people. They've also eased restrictions on residency requirements and in some cases have rolled back curbs on buying a second or third home.

中国央行已经要求商业银行把房贷作为首要任务来抓。一些地方政府也采取了措施放宽对消费者的购房限制。之前中国的房价一度飙升到中国13亿人口中的绝大多数都似乎承受不起的水平，这促使各地政府相继出台了楼市调控措施。一些地方政府还放宽了对购房的户口要求，某些地方政府还取消了对购买二套、三套房的限制。

But these measures have been relatively modest so far and Beijing has not given the market a clear signal it can go back to its old speculative ways.

但到目前为止，给楼市松绑的一些措施力度还是相对较小的，因为北京并未向市场发出可以回到投机老路的明确信号。

Though Mr. Pan didn't comment on the government's moves to soften property curbs, he did say he believes many forces -- including plans for a nationwide property registry, an expanded use of the property tax and more land for development as a result of rural land reform -- will help drive the market lower.

虽然潘石屹没有对政府放宽楼市调控的举措发表评论，但他说，他相信许多因素将推动市场走低，包括国家出台不动产统一登记条例的计划、房产税征收的范围扩大、农业土地改革使得土地供应量增加。

'I am not optimistic about China's property prices, ' he said.

潘石屹说，他对于中国的房价不看好。

If a property specialist like Mr. Pan thinks the market is close to a Titantic moment, perhaps it's a good idea for buyers to stay close to the life boats.

如果潘石屹这样的房地产专家都认为市场已经像即将撞上冰山的泰坦尼克，那么购房者呆在靠近救生船的地方或许是个好主意。